📊 1. Overview of Valuation Methods
Valuation is the process of determining the current worth of a business or asset using various methods based on cash flows, market data, or past transactions.
🔹 Common Valuation Approaches:
| Category | Methods | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Intrinsic Valuation | Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) | Value based on future cash flows and time value of money |
| Relative Valuation | Comparable Company Analysis | Value based on market multiples of similar companies |
| Transaction-Based | Precedent Transactions | Value based on prices paid in past similar deals |
Each method has strengths and weaknesses, and often analysts use multiple methods to triangulate a value.
📉 2. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
🔹 What It Is:
DCF values a company by projecting its future free cash flows and discounting them back to present value using a discount rate (typically WACC).
🔹 Key Steps:
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Project Free Cash Flows (usually 5–10 years)
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Estimate Terminal Value
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Perpetuity growth model:
TV=FCFn+1r−gtext{TV} = frac{text{FCF}_{n+1}}{r – g}
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Exit multiple (e.g., EBITDA × terminal multiple)
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Discount to Present Value using:
NPV=∑FCFt(1+r)t+TV(1+r)ntext{NPV} = sum frac{text{FCF}_t}{(1 + r)^t} + frac{text{TV}}{(1 + r)^n}
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Calculate Enterprise Value (EV)
🔹 Pros and Cons:
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Reflects company-specific fundamentals | Sensitive to assumptions (growth, WACC) |
| Useful for long-term analysis | Difficult to use for volatile or early-stage firms |
📊 3. Comparable Company Analysis (Comps)
🔹 What It Is:
Valuation based on market multiples (e.g., EV/EBITDA, P/E) of public companies in the same industry.
🔹 Key Steps:
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Select a group of comparable companies (similar size, sector, growth).
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Gather market data:
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Stock price, market cap, net debt → EV
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Revenue, EBITDA, EPS, etc.
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Calculate multiples for each (e.g., EV/EBITDA, P/E).
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Apply median or average multiple to the target’s metrics.
🔹 Example:
If peers trade at 10× EBITDA and your company’s EBITDA is $5M, then:
Enterprise Value=10×5=50Mtext{Enterprise Value} = 10 times 5 = 50M
🔹 Pros and Cons:
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Market-driven, quick to perform | Hard to find perfect comparables |
| Useful for benchmarking | May not reflect unique characteristics |
🤝 4. Precedent Transactions (Deal Comps)
🔹 What It Is:
Valuation based on prices paid in past M&A deals for similar companies.
🔹 Key Steps:
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Identify past transactions in the same industry.
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Collect data:
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Transaction value, target’s EBITDA, revenue, etc.
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Calculate deal multiples (e.g., EV/EBITDA).
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Apply average/multiple to the target’s financials.
🔹 Example:
If similar deals closed at 12× EBITDA, and your company has $4M EBITDA, then:
Enterprise Value=12×4=48Mtext{Enterprise Value} = 12 times 4 = 48M
🔹 Pros and Cons:
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Reflects real market prices | Market conditions may vary |
| Good for acquisition scenarios | Hard to find recent, truly comparable deals |
🧠 5. Choosing the Right Valuation Method
| Context/Company Type | Best Fit Valuation Method |
|---|---|
| Established, cash-flow positive | DCF, Comps, Deal Comps (triangulation) |
| Early-stage/startup | Comps (DCF is hard due to uncertain cash flows) |
| Acquisition or exit planning | Deal Comps + DCF |
| Market-based benchmarking | Comparable Company Analysis |
| Long-term intrinsic value focus | DCF |
🔹 Analyst Best Practice:
Use multiple methods to arrive at a valuation range rather than a single figure. This improves credibility and allows for triangulation.
✅ Summary Table
| Method | Data Source | Use Case |
|---|---|---|
| DCF | Company’s own forecasts | Fundamental valuation, intrinsic value |
| Comps | Public company data | Benchmarking, market positioning |
| Deal Comps | Historical M&A deals |
Acquisition pricing, exit valuation
|